Keir Starmer resigned as MP for Holborn and St Pancras in September 2026, after stepping down as Prime Minister, which caused a by-election in the central London seat. Labour has held the seat since it was created in 1983. Fifteen candidates stood, including the Green Party leader, Zack Polanski, and Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali, the leader of Camden Council.
At the poll on 8 October 2026 Labour held the seat with 45.2% of the vote. Polanski came second with 32.8%, the Conservatives third and Reform UK fourth. Labour’s majority fell from 11,572 at the 2024 general election to 3,364, and turnout fell from 54.1% to 38.6%.
Nine other candidates each won less than 1.5%. Turnout was 38.6%.
By-elections are often read as a test of a government, and this was the first in a seat held by a former Prime Minister after a change of leader. Labour held a seat it has won since 1983, but with a much smaller majority, so commentators drew different conclusions: some saw a recovery for Labour, others a continuing challenge from the Greens.
The result is also evidence about minor parties and first-past-the-post. A party leader standing for a minor party took nearly a third of the vote and second place, while the winner was elected with less than half of the votes cast on a turnout well below that of 2024. As a single by-election, it shows what can happen in one seat rather than a national trend.
David Jeffery, a lecturer in British politics writing in UnHerd, argued that the result ended the Greens’ momentum, noting that their share was only a few points above the combined 2024 vote for the Greens and the independent Andrew Feinstein. Russell Warfield, writing in openDemocracy, argued the opposite: that the result should not be read as a Green defeat and that Labour should not assume the challenge from its left was over.
Sky News’s analysis described Labour’s fall in vote share as smaller than average for a governing party at a by-election, suggesting Labour under its new leader might be winning back voters. Polanski himself said many voters wanted to give the new Prime Minister a chance.
By-elections have lower turnout and more local and personal factors than general elections. Here a party leader was standing, the seat had been held by a former Prime Minister, and in 2024 a strong independent candidate had taken second place, so comparisons with 2024 need care.
ITV News reported that Polanski faced pressure during the campaign after Green members backed a conference motion on Zionism that most of the party’s MPs opposed, so the result may reflect events in the campaign as well as long-term support for the parties.
The development has ended or been reversed, but remains useful evidence.
A recent by-election in which a minor party leader came second in a long-held Labour seat, useful for party competition, first-past-the-post and turnout.
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Origin: Human-written · Reviewer: Editor
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